Monday 21 November 2016

98. TRIUMPH OF TRUMP !



98. TRIUMPH OF TRUMP!


Red shows the states that voted for Trump.


The demonetisation of higher denomination currency notes in India has shifted the focus away from the major world event that occurred at the same time: the election of Donald Trump as the 45th President of the United States.

This is an important event, and could prove to be a turning point in history- like the Presidency of Ronald Reagan and election of Margaret Thatcher as PM in Britain. 

Remarkable Election


The election of Trump is the more remarkable because the Mainstream Media (MSM) had been reporting as if the election of Hillary Clinton was a foregone conclusion, a mere formality. Newspapers like New York Times and Washington Post , and TV media like CNN ( nicknamed by some as Clinton News Network) were badmouthing Trump, and ridiculing and demonising him from the beginning. They misrepresented his ideas on  all subjects and portrayed him as a silly joker.  The election proved them utterly wrong and showed them for the crooks they are. The Clinton camp was not graceful conceding victory. It instigated demonstrations in some cities, bringing bus loads of youngsters who were not voters at all! There have also been reports of malpractices with the voting machines, and of voting by ineligible persons. Clinton was also shown to have manipulated the debates. But Trump overcame everything. 



Simple, direct message


What was the secret? Pundits will invent theories, and close their eyes to realities. Trump has a basically three fold message. And not being a professional politician (  ie liar and actor) he spoke his mind bluntly. No jargon, no sugarcoating.. He reached over to people directly, across the heads of his own party men at times. His appeal was to all Americans, real Americans across party lines. He addressed issues which concerned ordinary Americans in their day to day lives.

American identity


And that was important. Just who are the Americans? Americans are just now worried about their roots and identity. It is because the Obama administration and the so called Liberal ( that is leftist- communist) dispensation would make of US a nation without roots, without borders, decrying its own history, culture and civilization. They would welcome illegal immigrants and feed them at the cost of  genuine taxpayers. These immigrants, especially Muslims, do not share American values and do not feel attached to the country. They are there for the dollars. Trump understood and addressed these fears of the average American. He opposed all illegal immigration in clear terms. He did not object to or oppose legal immigrants, such as technically qualified people from India. Indeed, Indians stand a better chance if illegal immigration is halted. The MSM did not report this properly, but portrayed Trump as  racist!


Those Indians who fell for the MSM and their Indian running dogs ( our own MSM) should ask themselves: would they like Bangladeshis to swamp Bengal? [There are already over 2 million illegal Bangladeshi immigrants in India] Or the Chinese to swamp Arunachal Pradesh? or Pakistanis to swamp Punjab? Or Srilankans to swamp Tamil Nadu? Is it wrong for a nation to try to secure its borders and limit illegal immigrants? And why are Muslims trying to go to USA when all Muslim organisations portray US as Satan? Why do the Muslim immigrants or refugees not go to other Muslim countries? They talk of their religion as brotherhood! This is the hypocrisy that Trump has called. Not that he invented this stand. The people had the fear of getting swamped, of their identity obliterated. Trump recognised it and articulated it. It has now received the support of the people. [This fear was at the root of Britain leaving the European Union in June, and now it is on the rise in Germany and France ie those countries which face waves of Muslim immigrants and refugees.]



Trump-Pence Team. 

Industry and jobs


The second point in Trump's campaign was about  America regaining its economic strength. Over the years, manufacturing has declined in the US, and jobs have disappeared. America imports from China, which means China has swallowed American jobs. And illegal immigrants take up jobs. This is sought to be justified in the name of globalism, but American jobs have shrunk. It is said that one in 6 Americans in the age group of 18-34 is without job or incarcerated. What has happened to American industry and enterprise, and jobs? Trump's simple point is to make industry thrive in the US again so that people can get jobs. Make America Great Again- the slogan of Trump's campaign sums it up neatly. 


This is however not going to be easy. No one imagines it to be so. Today's technology is not oriented towards employment or human welfare. It is oriented towards so called productivity, and blasted GDP, which measures money values, and not human welfare. GDP will grow even if some vicious disease broke out, and half the population died! It is not possible to revive old kinds of industries, and new industries are on super-human [ or, should I say monstrous] scale. The old kind of family farms, small businesses are lying victims of mindless technology and mega corporate money power. There is now a delink between technology and employment. As Trump's team gets down to business, it will face the difficulties. But as a nation, US cannot afford to neglect its industry and employment. Thus Trump has brought the right focus on the issue. Solution will take time and effort.


[This connect between technology and employment is a serious subject. The net result of technology is to reduce jobs, and make skills obsolete fast. Lord Keynes, the most famous of 20th century Economists spoke of an economy functioning at equilibrium at less than full employment- which he called 'long term underemployment equilibrium' or simply secular stagnation. This is unemployment brought about by technological advances. Today, technology grows without control, and works without restraint. Schumacher warned us about technology exceeding human scale. But such wisdom is not mainstream, still. To bring jobs back while wedded to technology is like trying to swim, tied to a huge rock, which keeps growing! ]

There is something basically wrong today with all models of economy with which we have been familiar. History has shown that the so called liberal ie leftist economics relies on taxes, bloats the bureaucracy, and transfers income from those who work and save to those who are a burden in the name of welfare, killing enterprise in the process.It swells public debt. On the other hand, what prevails today in the name of free enterprise is simple crony capitalism, with a strong business-govt. nexus.  It relies on reckles spending on mindless consumption to keep the system going. It leads to over spending, private debt,  financial distress and environmental disaster. It leads to more intense concentration of wealth in ever fewer hands, and horribly widens the gap between the rich and the poor. Mainstream economics has reached a dead end. Every administration has to settle on a workable model. This is indeed a big challenge. 

Protect the Constitution


Over the years, American Presidents have subverted the Constitution by executive action . Just how Obama was able to get his medical scheme out is an example. Besides, in the name of globalism, welfare and anti-terrorism, the civic freedoms of Americans are shrinking due to ever expanding State action. The leftist judges in the courts are subverting the spirit of the Constitution by outrageous interpretations. It is time Americans stood up for their Constitution as meant by the Founding Fathers. This is also one area of concern.

Closer relations with Russia


In the matter of foreign policy, the Obama administration is perceived to have supported the extremists in Syria (ISIS). Obama also favours some nuclear deal with Iran . It has been hawkish relating to Russia. Trump aims at closer ties with Russia and not rubbing it or needling it. Trump is for honouring sovereignty. I have put things simply here, but  there are lot of details  to be studied.

Hillary Clinton: under  multiple investigation

There have been allegations of wrong doing against the Clintons, for a long time. See the book "Do As I Say ( Not As I Do)" by Peter  Schweizer [ Doubleday,2005] for some well documented instances. There have been more serious ones since then, the main ones being her use of unsecured, private server for transmitting classified information while she was Secretary of State, and misuse of funds collected under Clinton Foundation, her suspected lying under oath in regard to Benghazi incident. There are many related malpractices/deals reported in connection with such matters. Sample this:


We’ve seen the politicization of federal agencies and possible felonies by government officials in the course of the FBI investigation, with possible obstruction, destruction of evidence, and perjury,” Peter Flaherty, president of the National Legal and Policy Center, a government watchdog group, told The Daily Signal in a phone interview.
Multiple congressional committee chairmen wrote Attorney General Loretta Lynch to ask about the unusual restrictions placed on the FBI during the initial probe of Clinton’s use of email, such as orders to destroy laptops after the investigation concludes.
Aside from the Justice Department and Congress, the Federal Election Commission could investigate Clinton’s campaign. The agency delves into credible allegations of campaign finance violations regardless of whether the campaign was victorious.
[From: The Daily Signal ]

There are allegations of malpractices in voting in the elections.All such news is blacked out by the MSM.  There is already a chorus demanding Presidential pardon for her- which is odd since no formal charges have yet been framed! This itself shows that there is really something  rotten at base, and how the politicians are trying to manipulate the system, so that truth is not allowed to surface.. Hillary Clinton really emerges as a dirty old hag.


MSM's silly games


Indian MSM has also worked under the shadow of their American models, and spread alarm and unease about Trump- as it did against Modi two years ago. Gradually, Indians will realise that we have nothing to lose if America becomes strong. In fact, many Indians in the US realised this and supported Trump. Though portrayed as  racist, Trump also got overwhelming support from African Americans. It will be foolish for any one to expect the US to run its affairs to suit others, and not its own interests first. New York Times apologised to its readers a few days ago.




There is lot of difference between election rhetoric and practical measures, which will be subject to constitutional constraints and institutional influences. This is the real art of governance! It does not run a text book course!Trump who has been a successful businessman can be expected to be pragmatic in matters of governance too.


A leader who wants to make his country great again, is great. Trump compels our admiration, and deserves our good will and best wishes. Let us wish him Godspeed.

Note.
1.There are Indians who feel Trump administration will hit Indians adversely, such as H1B visas. They cite old Trump speeches saying India has taken American jobs. I view such views as extremely silly and senseless. Should America run its affairs for the sake of Indian job seekers? The real point is, these Indians get educated here but run to US to get jobs! Which means our educational system does not help us,our own economy is not able to generate jobs or these Indians do not care for our country! Should we reform our educational system, and our economy or blame America for trying to put its own house in order?


2. Historically, no American Administration has been friendly to India, no matter which party held power, and who was the President ( with the  exception of  Franklin Roosevelt in the days of freedom struggle, and later Kennedy, who helped India during the Chinese aggression.) 


Galbraith, Kennedy, B.K.Nehru, Lyndon Johnson, Nehru! Oh, what a picture!


We had some real  friends of India as Ambassadors like Chester Bowles and John Kenneth Galbraith. But even they had difficulties with the administration. It was said that Galbraith could get along better with Nehru, a socialist than his own administration! Indians should not expect  much from any President in Washington, which has a strategic tie with Pakistan! We should learn to organise our own house to serve our interests.



Saturday 19 November 2016

97.BLACK MONEY = FILTHY LUCRE. DAMN IT !

97.BLACK MONEY=FILTHY LUCRE.
DAMN IT ! 



Can anyone today believe what value it had then?

Queues everywhere, for everything! That was socialism for us!

Those of us who grew up in the Nehru-dominated socialist-planning era learned to live with empty promises and vain hopes: just sound and fury, turned into a tale told by an idiot. And shortages and high prices and black market. We tightened our belts till the belts snapped. Youngsters living in the so called post-reform age can have no idea how many queues we had to stand in for essential things- right from baby food, cycle and scooter tyres, sugar and soap, cooking oil, a simple  hmt watch,monthly ration, etc. Standing in the queue was no guarantee that we would get the stuff: it was often the experience that the stock would be exhausted before our turn came.


Beautiful and good range of hmt watches. Done to death by senseless BJP govt which did not know how to revive a very popular and sentimental national brand.
image from:mansworldindia.com. Thanks.

Mad economists justify inflation, and doom the nation


 We also experienced how the rupee steadily lost its value. The socialist govt did or could or would do nothing to arrest the slide, but merely changed the base year for the calculation of inflation! There were so called economists who said that there could be no 'development' without inflation. The development was on paper, and we people experienced the effects of inflation in day to day life. These economists occupied high positions in the hierarchy, instead of being sent to the mental institutions. They could propound nice theories on paper but would go nuts when confronted with serious practical problems.


[Around the time India became Independent, the Western nations were just emerging from the ravages of World War II. The European economies were all shattered and in debt, while India emerged Creditor, with Sterling balances. Yet in ten years, Europe recovered and India became a debtor and plunged into deeper troubles! All due to our mad economists and planning!
It was only Sir Benegal Rama Rau who as Governor of Reserve Bank fought Nehru, TTK and Co on the issue of inflation. Unwilling to subscribe to bad economics and mad politics, he resigned in 1957. Reserve Bank lost its spine then, and inflation has been reigning since then.]


But the Rupee still had some value. The Rs.100 note in 1978 did not have the same value as it did in 1950 or 1960,or 1970 but it still did buy things. The same Rs.100 is valued at Rs.1400 at present! [That is, Rs. 100 today has as much value as Rs.7 in 1978!] So we see how devalued today's currency is!  No wonder, the 500 and the 1000 Rupee notes had become the currency of common usage. Demonetisation has suddenly sent them out of circulation and once again we realise the need for smaller notes for day to day transactions. Small has suddenly become beautiful, and useful!

Black money and vulgar show



The unrestrained run of black money in our economy was made fashionable by Indira Gandhi. It has rendered our public life vulgar and ugly. Money has always been valued in our Hindu system, but the vulgar show of it was hated. The very idea of treating money as Lakshmi was to confer dignity, and enforce restraint, and a certain deference in its handling. No Hindu would normally give or receive money with his left hand! But the neta-babu dominance made money vulgar, and its use ugly, and its show shamelessly open. Money buried even manners and morality.

Celebrating money in song!



I remember a couple of Hindi movie songs where this was captured beautifully by our great poet Shailendra. In 1957, he wrote this beautiful song "Mini mini chi chi" for the movie "Kathputli".



मीनी मीनी चीची – 2
दुनिया में चाँद-सूरज हैं (कितने हसीं) – 2
उतना ही सुन मेरे भैया दिल को लुभाए रुपैया
दुनिया में चाँद-सूरज …

रुपयों का चश्मा चढ़ाओ ये दुनिया दिखेगी रंगीली
दुनिया में चाँद-सूरज …

रुपयों का चश्मा चढ़ाओ ये दुनिया दिखेगी रंगीली
सारे नशे इसके नौकर ये है चीज़ ऐसी नशीली
ये चम-चम इसी की छम-छम इसी को गाए इसी को गवैया
ये चम-चम इसी की छम-छम इसी को गाए इसी को गवैया
मीनी मीनी चीची
चीची
दुनिया में चाँद-सूरज …

सपनों की रंगीन रातें जैसे कि आई दीवाली
कल का भला क्या भरोसा रहेंगे मालिक या माली
हँस के रुलाए रुला के हँसाए यही ज़िन्दगी का रवैया
हँस के रुलाए रुला के हँसाए यही ज़िन्दगी का रवैया
मीनी मीनी चीची
चीची
दुनिया में चाँद-सूरज …



mini mini chichi chichi  mini mini chichi chichi
duniya me chand-suraj hei kitane hasi kitane hasi
utana hi sun mere bhaiya dil ko lubhae rupaiya
duniya me chand-suraj hei kitane hasi kitane hasi
utana hi sun mere bhaiya dil ko lubhae rupaiya
duniya mein
rupayo ka chashma chadao ye duniya dikegi rangili
sare nashe isake naoukar ye hai cheez aisi nashili
ye cham-cham isi ki cham-cham isi ko gae isi ko gavaiya
ye cham-cham isi ki cham-cham isi ko gae isi ko gavaiya
mini mini chichi chichi mini mini chichi chichi
mini mini chichi chichi mini mini chichi chichi
duniya mein chand-suraj hai kitane hasi kitane hasi
utana hi sun mere bhaiya dil ko lubhae rupaiya
sapano ki rangin ratein jaise ki ayi divali
kal ka bhala kya bharosa rahenge malik ya mali
hans ke rulae rula ke hansae yahi zindagi ka ravaiya
hans ke rulae rula ke hansae yahi zindagi ka ravaiya
mini mini chichi chichi mini mini chichi chichi
mini mini chichi chichi mini mini chichi chichi
duniya mein chand-suraj hai kitane hasi kitane hasi
utana hi sun mere bhaiya dil ko lubhae rupaiya
duniya mein
Translation  bringing out the poetic beauty of this song is beyond me.That only another poet could do! I will just give the gist.
Money is so attractive! So attractive!
It is as beautiful as the sun and moon, and seduces our hearts and mind just as well!
Look at the world through the spectacles of money, and the world appears colourful!
All the intoxications become its slave, it is so  intoxicating!
It is so attractive, it is such a melody sung by all!
It makes us enjoy our dream nights, as if it is the eve of Diwali!
Enjoy now, for who knows whether one will remain the master on the morrow! What is the guarantee?
Life makes you laugh, it makes you cry! So, enjoy while you have money!







Spit on vulgar shoppers
We say 'people shop as if there is no tomorrow'! We see ceaseless advertisements on line and in newspapers , inducing people to spend senselessly on all sorts of things. Every social occasion or religious festival is made a ground for mindless spending on things totally unconnected. And  the possession of black money, or loose income, induces such a frenzy! They have the additional thrill of having cheated or got clever of the system! Our political system has allowed such people to have such a long run with ill-gotten loot! Spit on them.

Thrill of black money

In 1960, dear Shailendra came up with another gem of a song in the movie Kala Bazar. As the name shows, it was about black markets. And the thrill of black money [though the amount was paltry here] is intensely captured in this song.





Again, I cannot do justice to the poetic genius of Shailendra in a translation. I just attempt to give the gist.

1. You are round, like the sun. ( ie you reach everywhere)
You are cool like the moon.( you please everyone)
If not pleased, you could cause doom!
Your noise and commotion are everywhere!
There is no one dearer than you.
For us, O darling, you are the dearest!

2.You are the wheel, making the vehicle of this world move.
Your are the thief, and you are also the policeman!
You are the king of kings!

3.You bring youth to the old.
You are the sweetness of childhood.
Without you, even milk is like water!

4. We will float a religion  of money and wealth.
We will build a temple for you.
We will worship you, duly seated there!

Your noise and commotion are everywhere!
There is no one dearer than you.
For us, o darling, you are the dearest!






Traditional rich and the new brigade


Money has always been valued by society. But society has also looked upon the wealthy with some suspicion, or silent disapproval.Some stigma always attached to wealth.So wealthy people tried to ease their conscience, and please  the public, by acts of charity. In the olden days, traditionally wealthy people did not make a wanton display of their wealth. But the culture of nouveau riche, promoted by the political and business class has crossed all limits of decency and sense of shame , not to speak of refined taste, in acquiring and spending money. They have made a religion of money, and cult of worshipping it. On the one hand it invites jealousy and hatred; on the other, it also inspires people to get rich quick. 

Well done, demonetisation

Well, the current act of demonetisation has hit black money holders hard, It has also reduced us all to stand in the mother of all queues, just for small denomination notes! Many of us are literally left no currency notes in our pockets, though we may have all sorts of cards! That way we are all 'faqirs' now! But this too we can celebrate: those of us who may lack currency notes right now, can claim to possess rich- in fact golden- heart if we appreciate and support the current effort at containing the monster of black money.

Celebrate with golden heart!

 Again, Shailendra gives us the golden words to celebrate:

माना अपनी जेब से फ़कीर हैं
फिर भी यारों दिल के हम अमीर हैं

Maana apni jeb se faqir hai
Phir bhi yaro dil ke hum amir hai!

What if I have no money in my pocket!
I am rich in heart!

By the way, all these are fantastic songs with beautiful music. Enjoy them on YouTube.



Friday 18 November 2016

96. DEMONETISATION: DEVIL IN THE DETAILS


96. DEMONETISATION: DEVIL IN THE DETAILS!


Picture of queue in front of RBI, Bombay during the demonetisation in 1978.At that time the denominations of Rs.1000, 5000 and 10, 000 constituted under 2% of the value of money in circulation! Such is the ravage of inflation that on the eve of the current demonetisation, Rs.500 and 1000 denominations constituted 86% of the value of money in circulation.
Picture: thanks, Times of India.

Demonetisation of currency which constitutes 86% of the value of money in circulation is a stupendous task, in a country like India with a huge cash base, which has a solid preference for cash transactions. Its replacement will not be easy or quick. That so called high denomination notes dominate circulation is a reflection of the continuous erosion in the value of the rupee due to inflation. That is, high denomination, but low value!

 But demonetisation is necessary to immobilise stocks of unaccounted money- it is the only way. It involves severe action, and cannot be done by goody-goody talks. Let no one be under any illusion. This is a bloody hard fight against criminals and gangsters. It is not for sissies.

Govt in a Jam?


The govt seems to be in a jam of its own making. The new Rs.2000 denomination notes would not solve the problem, as it would aggravate the demand for smaller denomination notes, due to the velocity of circulation, at every turn.. The FM says today that it would take 6 months to replenish the Rs.500 notes. This statement is a loose sally, and would worsen matters. People thought the situation would improve soon; the FM by his statement has removed all doubts to the contrary! It would only add to the feeling of restlessness and uncertainty. It reveals how unprepared the govt really was for this measure!  This statement could have been avoided.

Lack of preparation?


According to newspapers, the printing of the new Rs.500 notes started only after Nov. 10. If so, it amounts to no planning at all. This is indeed a very unfortunate and serious situation.My conviction of the stupidity of  officialdom is strengthened.Stupidity could not go farther! [We do not know who in the officialdom was really involved with this measure, if at all and at what level. Obviously, they had no idea in the matter!]

Apparently, somebody felt that the bright new Rs.2000 denomination would meet the immediate needs of higher denomination notes. It would not- for while replacement is a factor, fresh transactions are also a factor, and behind both is the need for smaller denomination notes for day to day transactions in the layers and cycles of daily transactions across the country. 


 From: The Business Standard

There are ways!

I am not for cursing darkness.
FM's statement seems to be made on the basis of the capacity of the Indian note presses. But in these days of globalisation, this need not be a limitation  at all, if one's mind is open. India got its note printed abroad earlier, including the Rs.500  note; it got its coins minted abroad. It can be done again. 

I do not blame the govt for lack of experience. In matters of demonetisation, there is no experience to learn from. But I certainly blame the govt for lack of imagination and creative response.

 Such a secret operation on such a massive scale could not have been planned with a big team. But with our banking and ATM networks, and information on how much cash flows in and out of the banks, and out of the ATMs each month, we could have fairly estimated the monthly requirement of hard cash, and then worked out the denominations. At least two months' requirements should have been kept ready, before the measure was announced.This is for normal requirements. Notes to replace the demonetised notes are totally separate, as demonetisation would create an abnormal situation and add to the demand. It is not enough to think only of replacement by a higher denomination , which is but step 1; we have to think of the subsequent need for smaller currency in exchange.

No one can expect demonetisation to be smooth- no, not all all. But it should get smoother by the day, not rougher. If the govt does not expect the Rs.500 denomination notes supplies to be adequate for six months, you can imagine the chaos that would result!

Demonetisation of the higher denominations is the most effective way to immobilise huge cash balances of unaccounted money. It cannot be allowed to fail.








If this measure fails now, there can never be another fight against the devil of black money at all in this country! Having begun, the govt should not falter. So what can be done?





What should be done?

The govt should immediately get large supplies printed abroad on a war footing. This is not easy, due to constraints of the paper with the required water marks , which are specific to the denominations. But it is not impossible, and we had done it in the past.[ The left parties and their cronies would make noise out of proportion, but they would shout, no matter what you do. Ignore them.] I would say:

1. Indian Presses should continue with the current or planned programs, with three shifts or full capacity. But they should not print more of Rs. 2000 notes.
2. Huge quantities of Rs. 100 and 500 denominations should be printed abroad and brought to the country as soon as practicable.
3. Once these notes are available, Rs.2000 denomination should be taken out of the ATMs. Or, if dispensed through ATMs, people should have a choice as to the preferred denomination.

Don't forget the long term goal

On a long term basis, both the Rs.500 and Rs.2000 denominations should be phased out and quietly withdrawn, with Rs. 100 denomination remaining the highest note. This will indirectly force people to avoid cash transactions of high value.This will also force the govt to rein in inflation effectively, so that money retains its value and the govt. its credibility.

 While this will not stop generation of black money, it will make storing it cumbersome.

This should be the long term goal and should never be overlooked.

Mr.Modi cannot be allowed to falter or fail!



Mr. Modi has bitten the bullet. Now, let him go the whole hog, with no holds barred. If this measure is allowed to falter or fail, not only Mr. Modi fails and falls, but our democracy will succumb to the power of black money  for ever.  India will become a banana republic- with corrupt politicians, family controlled parties sitting on tons of money, crony capitalists feeding them in bulk, bureaucrats helping them along, and petty corruption overtaking the land.These will be the people who will run the country. This should not be, in the name of the good  Lord.

Note:
The Supreme Court is hearing some cases and making remarks. I do not know whether it is proper to comment on it. But the decision to demonetise is govt's (Executive's] prerogative and it cannot be discussed in advance! I would say, cases are in queue in courts, and let the judiciary clear those queues first! How can we fight black money when a black money case against a political leader takes 18 years in our judicial system?
Demonetisation has to be a sudden and surprise move, and is bound to result in some  inconvenience . Citizens will have to bear it for some days. This is a war on black money, not a tea party.

All those who have cards or net banking should resort to these. Even groceries can be ordered on line. Those who have bank accounts can withdraw from their accounts, instead of going to the ATM. There are ways conscientious citizens can help themselves, each other and the govt in its mighty fight against the menace of black money. So far we heard empty rhetoric . Now we see action. It hurts now, but it will heal the economy and the country in the days to come.

Thursday 17 November 2016

95.BRAVO MODI. MARCH ON!


BRAVO MODI, MARCH ON!




The fight against black money has just begun, because it is now, after a long time, that we have a Prime Minister who is serious on this issue, and earnest in his approach, and means business. No one expects it to end in the first round, or easily, or soon.

Senseless Opposition's sound and fury signify nothing!


We should not care two hoots for the wily politicians who are now shouting against demonetisation. Just look at them: most of the parties are family fiefs; in popular perception they are all sitting on tons of black money. Karunanidhis, Jayalalithas, Mulayams, Lalus, Sonias,even Shiv Sena- all are perceived by the public to have huge cash reserves, even if all them have not been having formal corruption charges against them. [ Rahul Gandhi was even reportedly detained at a US airport in 2001 with his girl friend and huge cash  in US dollars for which he could not account; he was rescued by the then PM Vajpayee's advisor, who was a Sonia loyalist.Such people speak against demonetisation!]And though they all have political parties, all the money is controlled by family members, and not party functionaries. They cannot trust any one else with so much money. Apne saaye se bhi in log darne lage!

अपने साये से भी लोग डरने लगे
अब किसी को किसी पर भरोसा नहीं

 Those who  observed the elections know how money flowed those days. Hundreds of Tamilian workers in Bangalore went to their places in Tamil Nadu during the last election to cast votes and returned with cash: in Tiruvannamalai, Tirukkoilur area, they were paid Rs.250 to 300 per vote; in Pennagaram and adjacent areas, they were paid Rs. 500 to 600 per vote. This is open knowledge. Listen to their tales, and you know how the system operates! You may decide which parties were involved , depending on who won where! Where did all this money come from? 

Politics, Real estate, Cinema, Professions!


Politics, Real Estate, Cinema are the fields where black money flows like perennial river. In Bangalore, there are many high rise buildings which are not occupied but which have all been booked by people with money and who are waiting for the escalation in price, or just escalating the price themselves, if there are gullible buyers! All these are financed by our bankers. So, you know how the nexus works! During the secondary and every subsequent sale, part of the price is invariably taken in cash.This also is  common knowledge. It has become so common, no one cares and every one has to succumb.

Spectacular results already!

The demonetisation move is already showing spectacular results:

  • It has already stopped the flow of funds to extremists- whether cross-border like in Kashmir, or the Maoists.
  • In Bangalore, real estate bookings made during Dipawali have already seen 60% cancellation so far!
  • Huge money already declared in deposits
  • Sale of new gold/jewellery has dwindled; the main business now is exchange of old jewellery.
  • With the decision to mark with indelible ink, queues are already thinning! The crowds were mainly due to hirelings, who went round to different bank branches to exchange notes with different identity cards!

Since money generated out of black transactions flows in and out of the regular economy, govt itself may end up as the loser in some cases. For instance, Karnataka govt has reported decline of Rs.6 crores in five days by way of  betting taxes in its commercial taxes dept.  Stamps & Registration, Excise depts too would register declines! This shows which sectors the black money was lubricating, mainly! More will surely surface!

Inherent difficulties in tackling black money

This is a problem facing any govt. Black money transactions are not a class apart. They are very much part of the system, like any rascal can dress like a gentleman! And govts themselves are often the beneficiary! This makes it difficult to target the black money transactions or holders with precision. But a govt with serious intent will have to start somewhere, and here Prime Minister Modi has done well. He deserves all credit.

In 1978, when the higher denomination notes[Rs.1000, 5000. 10,000] were demonetised, they were not in regular circulation,though legal tender, and only formed a tiny percentage of total money circulation.Rupee had value, and people did not need to possess or use a Rs.1000 denomination note which was really a high value note! Most people had not even seen them! So, it did not have an impact. The whole operation was over in a week! [ In fact, it was a totally unnecessary move, a fad of the then PM Morarji Desai, taken against the advice of the governor of the RBI] But now, the Rs,500 and Rs. 1000 notes are in wide circulation, used in day to day transactions by most people, rupee having depreciated in value,  forming 86% of the value of money in circulation.Replacing this in smaller denominations is a daunting task. That is why the general public is feeling the immediate impact. This cannot be helped, in a surprise move of this magnitude. Considering the advantage to the nation, and the honest tax payer, we as citizens must be willing to bear a little temporary inconvenience.

 In a way, the black money holders are holding the general public to ransom: they want to take cover behind the public. And our opposition parties are supporting them!




More measures are needed

But this demonetisation leaves our political and economic systems unchanged; the bureaucracy untouched; the scope for black transactions is left wide open. Which means that our politicians and shrewd industrial-business class and professionals may begin their next round with brand new currency, not to speak of petty corruption at the lower levels!


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It is not for me to suggest the political and economic changes that would stop or discourage black money. But one thing is certain: it is the political corruption that is the root of black money.  I feel our political class is beyond correction or redemption, and the general public [electorate] is generally indifferent to the question of morality or probity in public life.  Our media will support whoever will give them advertisement. Corruption is part of our culture: even a birth or death certificate cannot be obtained without bribe! Registration of marriage too involves a standard payment ; the registrar is now the govt priest! While we may not end corruption or even limit the scope for it, we may attempt to render such acts more difficult to accomplish with cash! 





High Denomination currency should be phased out for ever: move towards less cash economy

1. There should be no notes in circulation, higher than Rs.100. If it is to remain in circulation and retain some value, govt will have to contain inflation seriously and really and not just manipulate the figures and fool the public! This will make the finance ministry accountable. Their babus will really have to work.
2. Rs.2000 denomination introduced now is a mistake and it should be withdrawn soon.
3.Rs. 500 notes should be phased out gradually.
3. If anyone feels the need for higher denomination, it should be in denominations of Rs.1,00,000 and above; they should be numbered and registered, issued over bank counters to their own customers; they should not be meant for general circulation. They should be required to be redeposited and not exchanged for lower denominations.[ This will facilitate genuine high value transactions without giving scope for black money]

The mere absence of high value currency notes will render high value black money cash transactions cumbersome and inconvenient. It will generally steer the economy to a cashless or at least less-cash mould. It may only be a small beginning, but will not be a minor achievement in a predominantly cash using economy.

Accumulation of huge amounts of paper currency will be rendered physically unmanageable, if not impossible! No one can hold or hoard unaccounted money in physical form. This may drive them towards precious metals, which is a perennial favourite. But it can be dealt with.

Well begun, Mr.Modi

I am not an admirer of the BJP govt. I strongly feel that this govt lacks an overall economic vision ["Make in India" is only a slogan,  like "Panchsheel", or "Non-alignment" and not a policy.] I also feel that it lacks solid political content , a strong Constitutional position and firm commitment. But it is the best we have in a long time, better than opportunistic, clan-based alliances. And it is still early days for a new dispensation after half a century of dynastic rule. So, it deserves some grace time.




 Demonetisation is a bold move and so will attract adverse reaction from interested quarters. Sri Modi should not dilute it under any circumstances. Standing in queues is not new to Indians and we can do once more for a truly patriotic purpose, for once! The difficulties connected with smaller denomination notes are temporary, and we had seen even days of severe coin shortages- when coins had to be imported.

Temporary difficulties exaggerated

Some people are simply exaggerating the difficulties which are purely incidental to the big , historical move and temporary.. There are 5 ATMs of different banks near my residence. On a given day, three of them do not work; two will not give you cash in the required amount; they will  probably not provide you the receipt. Yet, what do the lousy bank managements do, and what do people do? This is the experience even in the normal days. And we are facing an abnormal situation now.

There was absolutely no need for people to get panicky or finicky. Are we all so witless that we could not even manage a few days ? Why stand before the ATMs when we could go  to the bank and draw the cash? Why compete with those who must exchange their cash?

Opposition parties are wasting their time, though providing us with much needed comic relief! That they are wasting Parliament's time and our tax money is the reflection of their lack of perception, and disrespect for the public. Ignore them.That will teach them their place. Anyone who demurs on demonetisation is an enemy of the nation. 

We should all take a minute off, ponder on the magnitude of the problem, the historical, unprecedented nature of the solution, the need for absolute secrecy and surprise, the huge logistic problems involved- before any one of us dares to lift a finger against the govt. Any dull fool can find holes in any scheme, but how many can give a constructive solution?

If we feel strongly that black money is a serious problem undermining and threatening our economy, does it not behove us as honest citizens to come forward to help the govt with willing cooperation, despite some small inconvenience? Have we really starved for days for want of small change? And if we do not so feel,are we real citizens of this democracy? Does our job end only with voting and electing some fool of a neta?

Mr. Modi, we salute you

Carry on, Mr. Modi. All thinking Indians are with you. All true citizens are with you. Some of us may wonder how effective this measure will be to curb black money in the long run; but there is no doubt that it will immobilise  huge black money balances right now. Whatever the extent, it is a net gain to the economy. No Prime Minister so far had this courage.

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We salute you, Mr.Modi, for this truly nationalistic initiative.